Kansas City’s Davies, as expected, has come back down to earth after pitching “over his head” in his first four starts of the season. In his last two outings Davies has allowed eight earned runs on thirteen hits in two starts that have spanned just 7.2 innings. He has more walks than strikeouts in his last four outings as he’s walked 12 and struck out just 10. That’s never a good sign and more struggles are likely against this red-hot Orioles club. Baltimore is 9-1 in their last ten home games versus the Royals. They’ve hit .319 in those games and they’ve averaged over six runs per game in those contests. They’ll need all the runs they can get because they’ve got Olson on the mound tonight.

Olson, an Orioles southpaw, is coming off of his first win in four starts but he was far from dominant. Olson labored through his five inning stint and he allowed six hits and walked three in the outing. Prior to that “ugly win” he had allowed 14 earned runs in his last three starts spanning just 15 innings. Also, in those three starts Olson allowed four home runs! He’s getting hit at a .291 clip in his career and his career ERA is still a lofty 5.77 ERA so we’re certainly not “sold” on him even though he has won a few ball games this season. Olson won his only start versus the Royals, at Kansas City on May 10th, but it was not a strong outing as he allowed eight hits in just 5.1 innings of work. The Royals get to him early and often in this one and that leads to a high scoring contest! Play OVER the total in Baltimore as a regular selection.

The Marlins offense will have to stay hot tonight if they want to “hang around” in this game. Florida sends Andrew Miller to the mound and the young southpaw is still displaying inconsistency in this, his second season as a starting pitcher. Last season with Detroit, Miller had a 5.63 ERA. This season with Florida, the left-hander has a 5.05 ERA so far. Miller has been hit at just under .300 by opposing batters this season and he also still has control issues which lead to too many walks! Miller has labored badly in five of his last seven starts and has averaged less than five innings per start in those five tough outings. As you can see, the odds are in our favor for another rough start for Miller tonight and, keep in mind, he’s never faced the Rockies before so, of course, he’s never experienced Coors Field before either! The Rockies just finished taking two out of three from San Diego at Coors Field and they scored twenty runs in the process. With their bats heating up, Miller is in the wrong place at the wrong time and this one turns into a back-and-forth slugfest. Play OVER the total in Colorado as a regular selection.

Detroit had won six straight before losing the final two games of their series at Minnesota. They should give plenty of run support to Justin Verlander tonight as the Tigers had scored 5.5 runs per game in going 18-4 in their last 22 games before losing those two games to the Twins. Also note that the Tigers bullpen is now getting back toward full health too but they won’t even be needed much tonight! That’s because Verlander is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA over his last four starts. Verlander also was a perfect 5-0 against the Mariners this season before losing to them earlier this year. Even in that loss he did not pitch poorly and, overall, he has a 2.90 ERA in his career against Seattle. Verlander’s 4-9 record this season with a 4.42 ERA is not indicative of how well he’s been throwing. Note that he’s only getting hit at a .239 clip this season and, also note that he’s only allowed 18 earned runs in his last nine starts – an average of just two per game! Verlander has also struck out 23 in his last 17 innings of work and he and the Tigers should dominate Seattle in this one. Play Detroit on the money line as a regular selection.